Libro de Visitas

Timmysib

15 Jun 2025 - 05:05 pm

darkmarkets nexus link darknet markets links

Toddysnili

15 Jun 2025 - 03:30 pm

darknet drug store nexus market link darknet market links

Timmysib

15 Jun 2025 - 03:03 pm

darknet drug links darknet markets darkmarket

Alfonzodek

15 Jun 2025 - 02:40 pm

¿Podrían compartir alguna anécdota o experiencia inusual que se decidió grabar en su libro de visitas, y la impacto que tuvo en ellas o en los visitantes?
Comience a ganar con HighNetwork [url=https://t.me/HighNetBot/HighNetwork?startapp=start=579323644]Haga clic aquí[/url]

Michaelphari

15 Jun 2025 - 01:34 pm

There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
раз анальный секс
A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.

It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.

For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.

It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.

The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

Nikkysnili

15 Jun 2025 - 12:07 pm

nexus darknet market url nexus dark nexus site official link

Toddysnili

15 Jun 2025 - 11:44 am

dark web market urls darknet market lists dark web market

Timmysib

15 Jun 2025 - 11:09 am

nexus onion darknet drug market nexus link

Karenrem

15 Jun 2025 - 10:26 am

online casino with sportsbook
online casino sportsbook
online casino tournaments online casino loyalty program fast withdrawal online casino online casino referral bonus instant withdrawal online casino
live casino online real money

Nikkysnili

15 Jun 2025 - 10:12 am

darkmarket list darknet market darknet markets links